Microsoft boosts Apple and Linux with Windows 11 upgrade tax

Windows are cracking. And it’s not just Apple that’s seeing the benefit; some users are jumping on the Linux bandwagon as a way to avoid the Microsoft upgrade tax. Case in point: Linux has broken the 5% barrier for desktop operating systems in the US for the first time ever, according to StatCounter data.

StatCounter claims Windows’ market share has fallen 13% over the last decade to 63.2%. That’s still a huge number, but as Microsoft forces its customers to endure the expense of a Windows 11 upgrade later this year, it represents an attractive congregation of potential Apple and Linux switchers. Millions of Windows users are taking that journey this year. 

Linux takes the leap to 5%

Meanwhile the Linux community is celebrating the fact that it has finally exceed 5% share. Achieving 5% is a symbolic achievement built partly on the desire to find life outside Windows. 

People want more privacy, dislike forced system updates, don’t want to be exposed to adware and want to retain control of their information against Microsoft’s data collection tools. These are just some of the reasons people are migrating to Linux and, more frequently, to the Mac. 

It wasn’t so long ago Apple’s own share stood under 4%.

The word on Windows

None of this is particularly new, of course. The writing on the windows has been visible for years. The international move away from monotheistic operating system monoculture is a good thing, of course — not only does it open the market up to a little competition, but it also helps enterprises become more secure. It means that if one OS goes down the other systems probably will not — and the deep fragility of the Windows ecosystem makes thinking that way mandatory. 

You can expect more of the same, particularly as — on an international basis — the desire for computing experiences that are not completely controlled by US corporate interests will only grow in the current political environment. 

Trust is fading and that makes it inevitable that the soft power of the tech industry will feel that change, even as Linux continues to improve and become more available to non-technical users. It’s also obvious that Apple (which is at least Unix-based) will need to recognize the growing challenge of the smaller platform — though it is good that you can run Linux on your Mac. 

Flies in the ointment

All the same, for many, the advantage of Linux will eventually be that it lacks any form of background AI software gathering data about what you do. As Apple itself likes to say, the best way to keep data secure is not to gather any at all, which Linux doesn’t. At the same time, a recent UK court case in the UK suggests that, at least to some extent, Apple does.

The world is changing and the platforms people choose will reflect this change.

At the same time, while StatCounter’s information accurately reflects changing tastes in desktop computing, I am puzzled at some of the information it has come up with, data that could undermine the central argument it makes. You see, when you look at the details, you’ll soon find that it claims 16.57% of global desktops are running OS X while just 7.72% run macOS.

That data seems suspect, not only because the last version of OS X release shipped nine years ago, but also because data StatCounter provides elsewhere shows that of the two, macOS is by far the most widely installed — with macOS Catalina accounting for 87%. This lack of consistency undermines the credibility of the claims, so while I believe the trends they represent are accurate, I don’t necessarily believe in the Mac OS split. (I dropped a line to StatCounter to see how it explains this and will update this story if it responds.)

Time to look outside the Windows

Sside from these unexplained statistical discrepancies, there is no doubt at all that this year more than any other is a huge opportunity for people to explore life after Windows. 

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