The stage is being set for 20 years of iPhone
Reading between the lines of recent Counterpoint data, it looks likely that six of the top 10 smartphones sold worldwide next summer will be iPhones. That’s because by mid-summer, the company is expected to introduce its first ever folding iPhone — along with an improved version of the highly affordable and popular e-series iPhone. The schedule isn’t exact, but follows speculation earlier this year that Apple intends on hosting two big iPhone reveals each year rather than one.
The first device, while expected to be expensive, is also predicted to sell incredibly well, while the updated “e” series phone will expand the company’s reach into the mid-range smartphone markets.
High hopes
We know Apple has high hopes for the iPhone fold because it has allegedly placed orders for millions of the Samsung-made displays it intends to use in the devices; most analysts (including IDC) expect the devices to compete very strongly against Samsung’s own range of foldables.
Apple has allegedly also developed a process that creates much more resilient foldable displays with an invisible crease, so it’s plausible to expect that Samsung might also benefit from a chance to build better folding screens for its own devices. (That would very much depend on the terms of the manufacturing deal between the two partners.)
One big iPhone reveal or two, what does seem to be the case is that by this time next year, Apple will have not one, not two, but as many as six different new iPhone models. These new devices will be supplemented by continuing sales of earlier-generation phones, meaning the company will be selling into market segments extending across the mid-range to the premium device categories.
Apple Intelligence Plus
All six will support whatever Apple Intelligence the company ships next year, which — for all the waiting — will almost certainly end up being state-of-the-art, with particular advantage for use at the edge.
In the event all the stars align, smartphone shoppers will be able to put their hands on an AI-capable Apple smartphone equipped with world-class mobile processors and top-tier performance on lower-than-industry-standard memory requirements.
The tendency toward being frugal with memory through optimized device performance will give Apple a second advantage in manufacturing costs per unit. This will be a big market advantage as memory costs spiral; while that suggests price increases in the low-, mid-, and top-tier smartphone sectors in the coming 12 months, Apple just needs to hold steady to its existing price structure to seem more affordable than ever in relative terms.
Consider the trend
With all this in mind, consider fresh Counterpoint data for the top 10 smartphones in Q3 25. Apple is consistently well represented in this list every quarter and we already know (because everyone keeps telling us) that the iPhone 17 range is doing incredibly well.
That’s confirmed by Counterpoint’s data for the third quarter, which includes the iPhone 17 Pro Max — even though it was only available for a few days during the period. It also features four other iPhones (16, 16 Pro, 16 Pro Max, and 16e, in that order) occupying the first four slots on the list. So for the quarter, iPhone models occupied five of the top 10 slots.
That was then, but by the same time next year we can reasonably anticipate Apple will have introduced at least two more models, and might have recently upgraded the rest. If that’s the case, it’s reasonable to think the 17e and iPhone Fold will both seize slots in next year’s top 10, while its other models continue to hold the line.
Result? iPhones are likely to be selling strongly in part because of their relative affordability in contrast to competitors in a business environment constrained by memory component price increases.
Waking up slowly
This realization is likely behind a range of very recent analyst upgrades on Apple stock from CLSA, Needham, Citi,Wedbush, Evercore, and more. Who knew that going slow on AI infra costs, while going high on memory optimization and performance per watt ,was going to become such an industry advantage?
So, what’s the significance for enterprise IT?
That’s simple: it means employee choice schemes will continue to favor Apple technology, which must be reflected in your purchasing, deployment, and support decisions. It also means lots of people in the C-suite will probably want folding iPhones in 2026 as a prelude for the 20th-anniversary iPhone the following year.
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