The 3-body problem of the dollar-yen exchange rate (hint: China)

In August 2024, currency markets briefly remembered how they were supposed to work. The Bank of Japan had begun raising interest rates. The Fed was signaling easing. The yen surged – USD/JPY dropped from around 160 to 140 in weeks. Narrower rate differentials, stronger currency. The old playbook seemed intact. Then reality reasserted itself. The
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