AI-related job creation to outpace losses by 2030, says Gartner

Wider use of AI within organizations will lead to more jobs being created than are lost by 2030, according to Gartner.  

Around 10.6 million jobs will be added globally (excluding China and India) by the end of the decade, with 8.9 million lost, according to a Gartner report — a net increase of 1.7 million jobs. At most, around 1.8% of the workforce will experience job losses attributable to AI during this time period, Gartner predicts.

At the same time, a total of 5 million jobs will cumulatively be deferred during this period. This refers to jobs that “would otherwise have been created, but where AI is used as an excuse to restrain hiring,” according to Gartner’s report. Gartner considers deferred jobs as separate from jobs lost.

“Job deferrals were the first effect felt from AI,” said John Lovelock, Gartner distinguished VP analyst and chief forecaster, with “companies holding off hiring open positions until the effects of AI projects were known.”

A recent KPMG survey of 400 US CEOs showed that 89% expect to increase headcount over the next three years, which KPMG US CEO Tim Walsh linked to AI adoption in an Axios interview last month.

For now, though, job losses attributed to AI outpace those created, according to Gartner’s study. During 2026, there were 2.2 million jobs lost due to AI, and 1.6 million gained.  

Lovelock expects the situation will change in the coming years, however, as organizations see greater success with AI deployments. “This will reverse once AI is through the Trough of Disillusionment,” he said, in reference to Gartner’s Hype Cycle framework.

Gartner

The number of jobs deferred is also forecast to fall in the coming years. During 2026, 1.3 million people experienced a delay in hiring, down from 2.1m last year, according to Gartner’s forecast, with 400,000 jobs forecast to be deferred during 2030.

The impact of AI will vary across sectors, with the technology industry expected to see the largest net job gains compared to other areas, such as public sector and asset-intensive industries. Gartner predicts the creation of 1.9 million new technology jobs by 2030, with 400,000 lost.

Services sector jobs — such as in financial services — are forecast to see a similar level of job creation, alongside large numbers of losses.

A similar Gartner report in 2025 predicted that more services jobs would be lost than created, but the analyst firm now forecasts a net increase as demand grows for data- and system-oriented skills. “This industry is most able to improve productivity of employees and increase employment,” said Lovelock.  

The Gartner report doesn’t specifiy which job roles will benefit from greater adoption of AI, though the analyst firm expects some portion of newly created jobs will be “directly linked to the implementation, maintenance and scaling of AI.”

Government jobs are expected to see the largest net job loss of any industry, said Lovelock. “Without the incentive of revenue growth or industry transformation, governments are expected to focus on the AI benefits of efficiencies and staff reduction,” he said.

Entry-level positions are expected to be the hardest hit by job deferrals, said Lovelock. “We do see many of the deferred positions being hired after a 12- to 24-month delay,” he said.

“Unfortunately, some deferred positions do transition into job loss. In most industries and positions, the employee experience pyramid will skew toward senior positions.”

In a separate report from September, Gartner forecast that 30% of positions eliminated by AI-related layoffs will be refilled by 2029, on average. For enterprise-sized organizations, the figure is likely to be higher, at around 40%.ComputerworldRead More